Using Explainable AI to Tackle Climate Threats in European Agriculture

The JRC has created an explainable AI (xAI) model that can detect and assess multiple climate hazards affecting crops. This tool aims to improve risk management and increase agricultural resilience in the face of extreme weather events.  European farmers are increasingly challenged by unpredictable weather patterns, including unseasonal cold spells, heatwaves, and prolonged droughts.

These climate-related issues can significantly impact crop yields and food security. To address this, the JRC's xAI model combines artificial intelligence with extensive agro-climatic expertise, offering a transparent approach to predicting and explaining potential threats to agriculture. 

Unlike traditional AI systems, this model provides clear explanations for its predictions, identifying areas of concern (AOCs) where specific hazards may impact agricultural productivity. The system processes large amounts of agro-meteorological data, using a dataset compiled by experts in the field. By explaining the climatic variables behind its alerts, the model enables users to make informed decisions based on their predictions. 

A key feature of the xAI model is its probabilistic approach to risk detection. Instead of simple yes-or-no alerts, it estimates the likelihood of climate hazards and provides uncertainty measures for each prediction. This allows users to assess both the potential severity of a threat and the confidence level of the warning. For example, it might indicate a high probability of drought conditions in a specific region during a critical crop growth period, enabling early intervention or resource reallocation. 

The JRC plans to further enhance the model by incorporating additional data sources, exploring more advanced AI architectures, and improving communication strategies. These efforts aim to make the system's outputs more accessible and actionable for a wide range of users, ensuring its continued effectiveness in protecting European agriculture against future climate uncertainties. 

To learn more, you can read the full article from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre here.